Bitcoin's Diminishing Losses: Shorter BTC Bear Market Due to No Blow-Off Top? by @colintalkscrypto on 3Speak
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Tags: #bitcoin #btc #bear #market
There's an argument that gets put forth, that because we didn't have a blow off top, we are going to maybe have a lesser bear market drop. People will use that to try to explain some kind of ridiculous bull market case, how we're bottoming already, and everyone wants to have their flavor of opium and be bullish. And so they'll use that argument. We didn't have euphoria. We didn't have a blow off top. Therefore, the bare market's going to be very shallow. And I think it's not as true as those permables would like you to believe or like themselves to believe. And the reason I say that is because if you were completely unbiased, and that's what I'm asking myself when I come up with this question, if I was completely unbiased, what do I think the next decline might be in percentage terms from the all-time high? Well, I think that somewhere around 70% looks pretty reasonable, give or take 5% in either direction. because we're just guessing, right? But let's take 70% as sort of like a reasonable decline. We can have diminishing returns with a 70 % decline, and it would still be a massive decrease in the drop, because both on a percentage term and in a direct numerical term, if you start at $126,000, you're already starting from a lower high than you could be starting at. Like, let's say we did have a blow off top, and it went to $200,000. It blew off way up here, and then let's take our percent. If you had a 70% drop, that would be a $140,000 drop from $200 ,000. And that would put us out a 60K cycle bottom for the bear market. So you can see that even if you use the same percentage, of 70%, the sheer fact that we didn't come from a higher blow-off top will give us a different floor target. And in this case, because it was a stunted, apathetic top, and we have 126K as the peak, then you're going to get a lesser drop in terms of straight numbers. It's an $88,000 drop from peak to trough versus that other scenario I give you where, let's say it blew off. at $200,000 and you had $140,000 drop down to $60,000. So the difference in the two scenarios is $140,000 drop versus $88,000 drop. There's a big difference in those two scenarios, just based on where the price is starting from, okay? But not only did we start from a lower point. We are also assuming a decrease in the percentage drop. We didn't assume it was going to be an 80% drop or a 77% drop. We did account for diminishing returns because we said, hey, let's continue this trend of decreasing decline. Let's assume it's a 70% drop. So there's two ways we just accounted for the diminishing returns. We did it on both the change in the rate, the change in the percent. down to 70% and the fact that it started from a lower point numerically on the chart. So I think that we did account for diminishing returns and very much did account for the fact that this wasn't a blow-off top. So I think that that's the best way to explain this. So when I give you a target of $37,800 as a potential target, because we're saying it's a 70% drop, that gives us a $38,000 target. So I think that it's reasonable to hit anywhere around this range. I think that it could be a $35 ,000 target or $40,000. That's probably my most realistic range at this point, 35 to $40,000. I think if we're lucky, we'll see, you know, 49,000 or $50,000 as the floor. But I think it's unlikely, as I said before, that we will see something as high as $60,000 being the bare market floor, because the math just doesn't support it by any stretch of the imagination. the $60,000 bottom was the floor for the entire bear market, which is what we reached in February, that would only be a 53% decline. That's a 24% difference here. That does not seem likely. I know we all want it to be likely. It just, I wouldn't bet on that. And so, both from a percentage drop basis and from a time basis, the February $60 ,000 bottom does not seem likely at all to be the final bare market bottom. That would only be like 33% of the way through a full year bare market cycle, if that's the length it was going to be, and that would only be a 53% decline. So I think that anyone telling you with confidence that the bare market floor is in, and that you're going to miss the next bull run and that the bottom is in already, I think that they are very likely to be wrong. And I think that they're pushing their hopium and their permabolish bias on you, and it is likely to mislead people. But I think that these two charts very much back up the fact that the bottom is probably not in. And then you fast forward back to where we are now. Now we're in the $65,000 range, okay? And we're breaking down potentially out of this bare flag channel. So if this bear flag does break down, it might rebound, it might retest the underside, just like it did over here. There was a nice retest after about a five-day period or a week. So it kind of broke down. It retested the underside. It could do that again, and then plummet downward. And that plummet downward, that will be where you start the $30,000 flagpole measurement from. So these are the reasons I think that it's a bearish outlook. Like, it's hard to look at this and be bullish. I am actually amazed that there's so many people who are still bullish when they look at this. There's nothing bullish about this chart. The trend is so clearly down. So that's where I'm at guys, just trying to keep it real, keep it truthful. I'm not feeding you opium. I have no reason to. I don't even care what anyone thinks of this analysis, because this is how I'm looking at the market. and I'm trying to be truthful to myself because if you're not truthful to yourself, then you're going to lose money. Hope you having a great day. Talk to you again soon.